3Twelve Total World Bond™ – A map of all major bond categories in the world

March 25th, 2014 by

 

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Sources: Data as of 9/30/13, Primary: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), S&P Capital IQ, A part of McGraw Hill Financial, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a part of McGraw Hill Financial, Investment Company Institute, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service. Secondary: Over twenty-five investment industry, research, and media sources. Percentages and totals are estimated due to rounding. Keys: Other (MM=US Money Market, ABS= US Asset Backed Security, MUNI= US Municipal Bond). Conv/Pref = US Convertible and Preferred. Source date is available by request to contact@7Twelveadvisors.com. Use of this research is permitted for non-commercial purposes only with proper citation as 3Twelve Total World BondTM with inclusion of primary sources.

 

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3Twelve Total World Bond™  - A map of all major bond categories in the world     

 3Twelve Total World Bond™ through 3rd quarter 2013. Note an increase in gross dollar values from $100.98 trillion to $103.63 trillion from the 2nd quarter to the 3rd quarter. When looking at bond values on a macro level it is important to try to determine if the change (if any) came from new issuance (or retiring) of new debt or if it came from price increase or decrease of the underlying bonds. This is very difficult to do for reasons stated below but our best guess estimate when subtracting the underlying index returns from the increasing values is that there was a slight leveraging of approximately .80% of total for the 3rd quarter. In other words issuance was greater than returns by .80%. This may not be unusual or unhealthy in a generally recovering economy. The biggest increase in percentage terms was in the leveraged-loan market. Continued increases in issuance of senior collateralized debt and business development companies in the U.S. reflected a still very tight commercial lending environment for the middle-market and commercial real estate from traditional bank sources.

About the 3Twelve Total World Bond™ map:

The 3Twelve Total World Bond™ map may be the most complete compilation of world bond totals available. We are delighted to publish this exclusively with LearnBonds — the most comprehensive source for fixed-income.

Maintaining an accurate world bond total is virtually impossible for many reasons: 1) Bonds are the largest investment asset class and have almost double the monetary value of stocks, 2) Bonds do not have a perpetual life like stocks, so values  constantly change, 3) Individual bond issues count in the millions, whereas stocks count only in the thousands, 4) Many bonds are privately traded and are never published on any exchange, 5) Even global clearinghouses like the Bank for International Settlements stated that they recently changed their calculation methodology because of difficulty of accurate estimating, 6) New issues of bonds are published, redemptions are not, 7) Bonds, Debt, and Loans are often mis-categorized, e.g., debt securities are always loans, but loans are not always debt securities, and 8) The primary sources that we cite report accurate data, however, secondary sources such as investment firms, banks, traders, investment advisors, and the financial press often unintentionally misinterpret this data. Because of this, we have at least triple-verified every data point with over twenty authoritative sources.

–Andrew D. Martin 3/24/14  (special thanks to Dalton Easterwood, research assistant, 7Twelve Advisors, LLC)

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