FOMC Projections and Changes Since June Meeting

September 13th, 2012 by

By CalculatedRiskBlog.com

Here are the updated projections from the FOMC meeting.

Below are the updated projections starting with when participants project the initial increase in the target federal funds rate should occur, and the participants view of the appropriate path of the federal funds rate. I’ve included the chart from the June meeting to show the change.


“The shaded bars represent the number of FOMC participants who project that the initial increase in the target federal funds rate (from its current range of 0 to ¼ percent) would appropriately occur in the specified calendar year.”

Here is the June chart for comparison.

There was a clear shift to 2015.

Another key is very few participants think the FOMC should raise rates before 2015.


“The dots represent individual policymakers’ projections of the appropriate federal funds rate target at the end of each of the next several years and in the longer run. Each dot in that chart represents one policymaker’s projection.”

Most participants still think the Fed Funds rate will be in the current range through 2014.

The four tables below show the FOMC Sept meeting projections, and the June projections to show the change.

 

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1 2012 2013 2014
Sept 2012 Projections 1.7 to 2.0 2.5 to 3.0 3.0 to 3.8
June 2012 Projections 1.9 to 2.4 2.2 to 2.8 3.0 to 3.5

1 Projections of change in real GDP and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

GDP projections have been revised down for 2012, and revised up for 2013 and 2014.

The unemployment rate was at 8.1% in August, and the projection for 2012 is unchanged. The projection for 2014 was revised down.

 

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2 2012 2013 2014
Sept 2012 Projections 8.0 to 8.2 7.6 to 7.9 6.7 to 7.3
June 2012 Projections 8.0 to 8.2 7.5 to 8.0 7.0 to 7.7

2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The forecasts for overall and core inflation show the FOMC is still not concerned about inflation.

 

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1 2012 2013 2014
Sept 2012 Projections 1.7 to 1.8 1.6 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0
June 2012 Projections 1.2 to 1.7 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0

Here is core inflation:

 

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core Inflation1 2012 2013 2014
Sept 2012 Projections 1.7 to 1.9 1.7 to 2.0 1.8 to 2.0
June 2012 Projections 1.7 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0

Originally posted on Calculatedriskblog.com

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