Is Lending Club going through growing pains?

February 20th, 2013 by

lending club growing painsI am a client of Lending Club. Lending Club and its main competitor, Prosper, facilitate peer-to-peer lending. They offer slick online platforms that make it easy for me to lend money to another person living in the US. For example, I could invest in loans which will be used by the borrower to pay off their credit card bills. In exchange, I receive an interest rate on the loan which is much higher than I  even get on a high-yield bond. On average, the loans that I make through Lending Club have a 16% rate of interest. While a larger percentage of the people that I loan money too will not fully pay it back, I expect the returns to be about 9% per year after deducting loan losses.

Before I continue, I should also disclose that I am an affiliate for both Lending Club and Prosper. I run their advertisements on my site, Learn Bonds, and get paid when my ads lead to an account being opened.

 

Lending Club is Having a Problem Investing My Money

On January 3rd, 2013, I opened an IRA account. The account was for more than $50,000 and less than $1 million. Lending Club recommends diversifying among several hundred loans. To assist in this process Lending Club offers an optional service called Prime,  in which they take the work out of finding and investing in  loans. You provide them instructions on what type of loans you want to invest in (length, credit risk of borrower) and they handle the details on your behalf. I was told that my account would be fully invested within 3 to 4 weeks. On February 14th, about 10% of my funds are in cash or “in funding”.  You can learn more about their Prime service here.

 

The Ratio of Notes Listed / Issued

Every month thousands of loans are listed for investment on the Lending Club platform.  When investors commit to fund the amount of the loan, the loan is removed from being shown on the platform. However, just because a loan is fully funded doesn’t mean it will be issued. Recently, I noticed that only about half the loans which the “Prime” service places orders for on my behalf are getting funded.  In the beginning of January when my account was first funded, I noticed that the number was around 60%. As you can see from the below comment left on a forum hosted by Lend Academy  my experience doesn’t seem to be isolated.

“I’m not sure what other investors feel, but the low rate of issuance for loans on the platform is something that has come to bother me recently. From past orders, it seems safe to say that only 50% of loans you fund will be issued. LC investing is very time consuming to aggressively keep all your capital committed to fund loans, and the great returns justify it – it seems that LC should refine their initial credit criteria to see which borrowers are most likely to not follow-through with the application process, and introduce the funding stage notations like Prosper.”

As the post above indicates, Lending Club posts loans before they verify the information provided by the borrower. This leads to a large number of loans which investors pledge funds for investment, not being issued. For those that don’t use the prime service, the process of investing becomes time consuming. For those using prime, it means that cash must sit idle for longer periods of time.

 

Lending Club’s Response

When asked to comment on this issue, a representative from the firm’s PR agency e-mailed:

“Lending Club’s list-to-issue remains around 60-65% we had an unexpected increase in applications in January which resulted in a higher number of borrower withdrawals due to some marginal increase in processing time.”

Reading between the lines, the firm is admitting there was a problem in January. Furthermore, they are basically making a connection between application processing time and the activity of borrowers. The longer the processing time, the more borrowers find alternative sources of funding. As borrowers withdraw their applications,  the experience of investors becomes worse.

 

Why doesn’t Lending Club just verify loans before they post them?

I think the answer is that Lending Club is a victim of its own success. It appears that they don’t have the infrastructure developed to support verifying the increasing number of loan applications that they receive. My hunch is that if they changed their process to verifying loan information prior to posting, they would frequently have the problem of not having any loans on their platform to display. Imagine the headline, “Lending Club Runs Out of Loans”.

In January 2012, Lending Club issued 2,598 loans. A year later, the number of loans more than doubled to 6,872. However, Lending Club rejects 9 out of 10 loan applications. In January 2013, Lending Club rejected 43,065 loan applications. Assuming each loan application takes just 30 minutes to verify or reject, Lending Club would have to have over 150 people working in their loan verification department to keep up with the volume of incoming loan applications.

 

The Silver Lining

I am glad that Lending Club is verifying loans before issuing and not cutting corners. The problems that this article outlines, having too little infrastructure to support growing demand, are temporary and typical for a fast growing company. However, they are also the types of problems that a smaller competitor might use to gain market share from them.

Please Share!

6 thoughts on “Is Lending Club going through growing pains?

  1. January was a strange month at Lending Club. They went from around 800 loans on the platform to almost 2,500 loans in just a couple of weeks – I think the marketing campaign they ran went a little too well.

    But your article highlights a dilemma. If Lending Club only posted completely verified loans on their platform the experience for the borrower would not be as good. Some loans still take 12-14 days to be fully funded by investors. Add a week of verification time to the beginning of that process and you are getting out to three weeks for a borrower to get their money. It just makes sense to do the verification and the funding simultaneously.

    As to your infrastructure point I brought this very question up to Renaud Laplanche, CEO of Lending Club, in a recent meeting. He said they are looking at ways to speed up and even automate large parts of the verification process so that it happens faster. This will lead to a better experience for investors.

    As an investor I would like to see my money invested just in borrowers that turn into loans. But I expect we will always have a good percentage of loans that get canceled by the borrower for various reasons. I know this bothers many investors, I look at it as just part of p2p lending.

    • Thanks for commenting Peter always good to hear your opinion and you make some good points.

      Best Regards,Dave

      • On the topic of income verification, I believe Peter Renton’s analysis showed that loans with verified incomes actually underperformed loans without income verification. Counterintuitive, but that’s what the numbers said…

  2. I have a somewhat different problem with LC. The average coupon on the loans I made was 17%, and after fees and “expected” defaults, the predicted return would be a bit over 10%. Actually, it’s only been 8%, due to a higher-than-predicted default rate, and a high prepayment rate (resetting my investment to zero-interest cash).

    So, 8% is not bad, but I can get it in any number of high-yield bond funds which are completely liquid. So why tied up money in completely illiquid LC notes?

    • Hi Aalan,  Thanks for the comment and for sharing your experience.  I hear what you are saying the one thing I would say though is that at 8% you are still doing significantly better than the average high yield fund where you are getting under 6%.  Best, Dave

    • Mark Jackson Reply

      March 18, 2013

      Bond funds are a different animal altogether. The bond fund is, indeed, liquid, but can have a wildly fluctuating share price even without any individual bonds defaulting. If interest rates spike, then you can count on the current share price to plummet, so that the share for which you paid $100 may be “completely liquid” at $80.

      With Lending Club, the problem of liquidity hasn’t really struck me as a very big deal, for two reasons. First, I have only $12,000 or so in it, and it’s not like I’m going to suddenly need it. Second, while lacking liquidity, the account does provide regular cash flow. Between the interest and the repayment of principal, several hundred dollars of cash are appearing in the account every month. I always reinvest in new notes, but if I needed a few hundred $ of cash, it’s there.

      I would add that it’s simply not true that Lending Club notes are “completely illiquid”. The state in which I hold my US address is ineligible for direct lending via Lending Club, so every single note I own was once upon a time owned by someone else who would be puzzled to hear that the notes he, um, liquidated were actually “completely illiquid”.

Leave a comment